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Monday, January 31, 2011

One Tree Hill Season 8 Episode 13



One Tree Hill Season 8 Episode 13 can be watched on Tuesday at 8:00pm EST on WPIX (CW) TV channel.

Title of the brand new episode is: The Other Half of Me.

Synopsis of the episode is: Brooke and Julian's big day arrives, bringing with it wedding hook-ups and revealed secrets.


S.Korea's Lee urges North to seize 'good chance'

AFP, SEOUL: South Korea's President Lee Myung-Bak urged North Korea to
seize a "good chance" to improve relations, as the two sides prepare
for talks aimed at easing months of high tensions.

Lee, in his first direct response to recent peace overtures from
Pyongyang, also did not rule out a summit with the North's leader Kim
Jong-Il.

"We can hold a summit if necessary... this is a good chance for North
Korea," he said on Tuesday, in a televised interview.

The two sides agreed last month to hold high-level military dialogue.

Seoul has proposed preparatory talks on February 11, in what would be
their first contact since Pyongyang's deadly shelling of a border
island last November.

The working-level talks are aimed at setting the date, place and
agenda for the high-level military dialogue.

But Seoul says the high-level meeting will only go ahead if Pyongyang
takes responsibility for two attacks last year and promises no
repetition.

Apart from the shelling of Yeonpyeong island, which killed four people
including civilians, the South accuses the North of torpedoing a
warship last March with the loss of 46 lives -- a charge the North
denies.

Lee said a "strong response" to provocations could prevent any
repetition. "I have great expectations that this may be time for North
Korea to change," he said.

"If the North shows willingness for sincere dialogue instead of
military provocations, we can hold inter-Korean dialogue, economic
exchanges and talk about the six-party talks."

The six-nation negotiations on the North's nuclear disarmament --
grouping the two Koreas, China, the United States, Russia and Japan --
have been stalled for more than two years.

The US, South Korea and Japan say the North must improve cross-border
ties before they can resume.

Lee also expressed regret that the two Koreas are spending an
"enormous budget" on an arms race.

He said the North could probably overcome its persistent food
shortages if it cut its defence budget by 20-30 percent.

Countries evacuate citizens as Egypt crisis worsens

AFP, PARIS: Countries around the globe have stepped up evacuations of
foreign tourists and workers from Egypt amid growing protests to force
out beleaguered President Hosni Mubarak.

In Washington, Assistant Secretary of State Janice Jacobs said at
least 2,600 Americans in Egypt have asked US officials for help in
leaving.

More than 1,200 left the country Monday on nine flights headed for
Larnaca in Cyprus, Istanbul and Athens, according to the State
Department.

"We want to make sure that anyone who needs our help is getting that,
and so, yes, I do expect those numbers to go up over the next few
days," Jacobs said.

"We are encouraging Americans who want to take advantage of these
charter flights to go to the airport, but I should say that people
should be prepared for a very long wait."

Chaotic scenes unfolded at Cairo airport as authorities struggled to
cope with an influx of thousands of departing passengers.

At least six more flights for US citizens were planned on Tuesday, and
about 40 extra consular staff have been deployed to Cairo and the
three arrival points in a bid to speed up evacuations, officials said.

China meanwhile sent two Airbus A330 jets to bring its nationals back
from Egypt.

"The Chinese government attaches great importance to the security of
Chinese citizens in Egypt, and has coordinated relevant airlines to
increase flights to bring back stranded Chinese citizens," said a
foreign ministry source quoted by Xinhua news agency.

Turkey said it had brought 1,144 of its citizens home aboard five
specially chartered aircraft of Turkish Airlines from Cairo and
Alexandria on Sunday night, in addition to 330 flown back over the
weekend.

Indonesia ordered its citizens to leave Egypt, where more than 6,000
are believed to reside, and promised to dispatch military aircraft to
bring them home.

Japan said it was sending emergency charter planes to evacuate
hundreds of Japanese, some of whom have already left while many others
were stranded at Cairo airport.

Thai Airways planned a special flight to Cairo to repatriate Thai
tourists, but noted there were problems to overcome such as ground
servicing and refueling as it had no regular services to the Egyptian
capital.

Air India chartered a plane to bring back 320 Indians and decided to
divert another flight from its regular Mumbai-Jeddah route to pick up
more, airport sources told the Press Trust of India news agency.

Tunisair said it would be ferrying 150 Tunisians back to the country
whose own toppling of president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali sparked the
Egyptian unrest.

While tour operators in many countries were planning to bring clients
back earlier than scheduled and canceled further excursions, they said
the situation in the main beach resorts on the Red Sea remained calm.

Foreign companies also began bringing home expatriate employees and
their families.

France Telecom and building materials company Saint Gobain said they
were following the example of other French groups, cement firm Lafarge
and bank Credit Agricole, and repatriating some 50 people.

Lafarge, which employs 70 expatriates in Egypt, and Italy's
Italcementi were halting cement production there, while Danish
shipping and oil group A.P. Moeller-Maersk also said it was suspending
its activities.

In Germany, wholesale distributor Metro said it had brought back 20-30
employees, adding that its two hypermarkets in Cairo had been looted
and were closed.

Energy group RWE said it had flown out some 90 people and vehicle
maker Daimler fewer than 50.

Russian companies Lukoil and Novatek were also evacuating staff, but
Moscow has given no order for some 40,000 tourists to come home and
many were happy to stay on the beach, agencies said.

Saudi Arabia said it organized 33 flights between Saturday and Monday
to take its nationals home.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called for a "transition toward
basic values of freedom, democracy, human rights and justice," while
up to 335 Canadians and other foreign nationals were flown out of the
country aboard chartered aircraft to escape bloody anti-government
protests.

Britain was advising its nationals to leave flashpoint Egyptian
cities, but tour operators stressed there was no need to pull tourists
out of popular Red Sea resorts.

France has also warned against unnecessary travel to Egypt, but
foreign ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said Paris was not yet
considering evacuating its roughly 10,000 citizens in the country.

Cuba jails 13 in grisly hospital abuse case

AFP, HAVANA: Cuba handed lengthy prison terms to 13 workers at a
mental hospital where 26 patients died in a cold snap a year ago that
embarrassed a government that prides itself on its health care.

The Havana Provincial Court slapped the longest sentence, 15 years, on
the director of the hospital, Wilfredo Castillo, for
"misappropriation" and "dereliction of duty," an official statement
read out on the state news broadcast said. The other sentences ranged
from 5 to 15 years.

The court said prosecutors proved their case but regretted that the
case resulted in "several people dying," the text said in part.

According to the official account, 26 patients died when temperatures
on the tropical island plunged to 3.9 degrees Celsius (39 degrees
Fahrenheit) beginning on January 9, 2010.

Cuba's outlawed human rights commission has estimated that more than
30 patients died because others perished later at other hospitals and
were not included in the official toll.

Hospital employees told the press at the time that the patients were
undernourished and had no blankets because the hospital's supplies had
been stolen by people who worked there.

Clinical evaluations of the victims found signs of malnutrition, a
high incidence of anemia and vitamin deficiencies, according to the
official report, which said the hospital received enough food for
2,458 patients when there were only 1,484 patients, the official
report said.

It added that an absence of controls "favored the misappropriation of
resources destined fundamentally for the nourishment of the patients,
as well as for clothing and bedding for their protection."

Health and education are free and available to all in Cuba, but the
government has acknowledged that the system has deteriorated in recent
years due to internal economic problems and the US trade embargo.

UN predicts 100,000 could flee I. Coast turmoil

AFP, UNITED NATIONS: The number of refugees fleeing Ivory Coast's
political turmoil could triple to over 100,000 in three months amid
reports of cholera in the troubled nation's main city, the United
Nations said.

There are already 32,000 Ivory Coast refugees in neighboring Liberia
as growing numbers fear unrest between followers of political rivals
Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara, according to UN figures.

"UN agencies have voiced concerns that if the current trends in
refugee influx continue, by mid-February there could be as many as
50,000 refugees in Liberia and 100,000 by the end of April," the UN
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in a
statement.

Many roads in Liberia are expected to become blocked by the rainy
season in April and the United Nations fears that much-needed supplies
will not get through to reach population centers.

Another 20,000 people have fled their homes in western Ivory Coast,
mainly in the Duekoue region, OCHA said. Many already rely on the
United Nations for food.

The UN agency said a "cholera epidemic" has been declared in the main
city Abidjan. It gave no details of numbers affected but said the
World Health Organization, UNICEF and local authorities were
distributing hundreds of thousands of bars of soap and chlorine.

Tensions have mounted in the West African nation since Gbagbo refused
to stand down as president and hand over power to internationally
recognized leader Ouattara.

Ouattara was declared winner of an election intended to reestablish
normality after a 2002 civil war that split the country in two for
many years.

Irish PM to ask for parliament to be dissolved

AFP, DUBLIN: Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen will on Tuesday ask for
parliament to be dissolved and call an election likely to take place
this month, which is expected to see his Fianna Fail party ejected
from power.

Amid public outrage at his government's handling of the devastating
economic crisis, Cowen is to seek the dissolution of parliament from
President Mary McAleese and call a general election widely expected on
February 25.

Fianna Fail is heading for its worst-ever electoral defeat after a
brutal recession which forced Ireland in November to agree to loans
worth 67.5 billion euros ($92 billion) from the EU and IMF as part of
a rescue package.

Cowen had originally called the election for March 11.

But he has been forced to bring it forward after the Green party
withdrew from government 10 days ago in protest at a botched cabinet
reshuffle, leaving the centrist Fianna Fail ruling in a minority
government.

Cowen, who has been the target of much public anger for his
government's handling of the crisis, was also forced to step down as
head of his party, although he has remained prime minister.

Cowen said on Monday that he would not be standing in the election,
telling local radio station Midlands 103 that his "political career
comes an end with the calling of this election."

If the party -- which has dominated Irish politics for decades --
loses power as expected, it will be the first government to have
fallen because of the eurozone debt crisis which has battered the
single currency.

Ireland was the second eurozone country after Greece to seek a bailout.

The likely winner of the election will be a coalition involving Fine
Gael and the centre-left Labour party, headed by Fine Gael leader Enda
Kenny.

Two polls on Sunday showed Fianna Fail heading for a drubbing at the
hands of angry voters.

A MillwardBrown Lansdowne poll in the Sunday Independent newspaper had
Cowen's personal rating at 10 percent and dissatisfaction with the
government at 95 percent, the highest ever.

It showed Fine Gael at 34 percent, with Labour on 24 percent and
Fianna Fail at 16 percent.

And in a Red C poll for The Sunday Business Post, Fine Gael was on 33
percent, Labour 21 and Fianna Fail 16.

The upper house of the Irish parliament voted through a finance bill
key to securing the bailout late Saturday, preparing the ground for
Cowen to seek the dissolution of parliament.

All the main parties agreed that passing of the bill, which brings
into force measures from the government's harsh austerity budget,
before elections was necessary.

After the government lost its majority, opposition parties insisted
that the legislation be pushed through as fast as possible so
elections could be called.

Snow storm threatens 100 million in US

AFP, CHICAGO: A mammoth storm threatens to dump mounds of fresh snow,
sleet and ice on about 100 million already winter-weary people from
the US heartland to the east coast, forecasters said.

Blizzard, winter storm and freezing rain warnings were issued for more
than 25 states, from North Dakota and Colorado down to New Mexico,
then up through Texas, Kansas and Missouri to the Great Lakes region
and across Pennsylvania to New England.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) urged residents to
prepare in earnest for the fury of the storm as it barrels eastward
across the country.

"A storm of this size and scope needs to be taken seriously," said
FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, who warned that "it's critical that
the public does its part to get ready."

Fugate urged residents in storm affected regions to "check on your
neighbors, especially the elderly and young children -- those who can
be most vulnerable during emergencies."

Scores of schools and government offices in US Midwest were closed
Monday as freezing rain began to fall, threatening to turn roads into
deadly ice rinks and down power lines and trees.

Airlines warned of significant delays and cancellations and offered
customers a chance to rebook flights at no fee.

The worst of the storm was expected Tuesday as a large amount of
moisture sucked up from the Gulf of Mexico feeds the huge system and
is transformed into snow and thunderstorms.

Powerful winds and heavy snow could create white-out conditions and
drifts as high as six to eight feet (1.8 to 2.4 meters), making travel
impossible.

"Lurking behind this impressive winter storm is a powerful shot of
Arctic air as a frigid surface high drops down from central Canada,"
the National Weather Service warned.

Wind chills were forecast to drop to 30 to 50 below in Colorado,
Wyoming, the Dakotas, Kansas, Idaho and even parts of Texas.

Officials warned the public to stay at home rather than try to brave
the crippling storm.

"It doesn't take a whole lot to make everything slick and if roads
aren't treated they're going to get icy and then it's going to snow on
top of that, which is going to make matters worse because you can't
see the ice," Pat Slattery, a spokesman for the weather service, told
AFP.

"One of the concerns about the freezing precipitation is if it gets
heavy and starts taking down power lines and trees because people have
no way to keep their homes warm, and a bitter cold will follow right
on the heels of the snow and freezing rain."

As much as 18 inches (45 centimeters) of snow was expected in the
Chicago area and officials warned that ploughs would not be able keep
up, making side streets impassable.

Gusts up to 60 miles per hour could also lead to flooding along the
lake shore as waves build up to 25 feet.

Many other areas were predicted to get over a foot (30 centimeters) of snow.

"The east coast will begin to get in on the winter weather action
Monday night as the precipitation begins to nose its way over the
Appalachians," the weather service warned.

"By Tuesday morning the mid-Atlantic and southern New England states
will be in the mix."

The storm arrived just days after a rare thunder-snow storm paralyzed
air and ground travel from Washington to Boston.

After building up early Wednesday with ice and freezing rain, last
week's storm blindsided the US capital at the height of the evening
rush hour Thursday, not even sparing President Barack Obama, who faced
travel delays upon returning from a day trip to the US Midwest.

There was no word yet on whether the latest storm would impact
Groundhog Day on Wednesday, when the nation watches Phil, the weather
predicting groundhog in Punxsutawney (Pennsylvania), to see if six
more weeks of winter are still to come.

US judge deals new blow to Obama health reform

AFP, WASHINGTON: A second US federal judge declared President Barack
Obama's health care law unconstitutional, sparking a fierce new
showdown with Republicans who vow to repeal the historic reform act.

The Obama administration immediately pledged to appeal and branded the
ruling by a Florida judge as an "outlier" from the judicial
mainstream, warning that health care costs would soar if it was
allowed to stand.

But Republicans crowed that the ruling was one step closer to the
outright repeal of a law that has been a Democratic dream for decades
but that conservatives say will explode the deficit and kill jobs.

US District Judge Roger Vinson said a key provision of the law known
as the "individual mandate" exceeds Congress's regulatory powers by
requiring Americans to either purchase health insurance by 2014 or pay
a fine.

"Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional and not severable,
the entire act must be declared void," Vinson said in his ruling, the
latest step of a twisting legal battle likely to end up in the US
Supreme Court.

"This has been a difficult decision to reach, and I am aware that it
will have indeterminable implications."

Vinson agreed with governors and attorneys general from 26 US states
that consider the provision unconstitutional.

But the Justice Department quickly said it would appeal Vinson's
ruling, and consider all options -- including a stay of the verdict
pending appeal -- to ensure the health care law can go into force.

The health care law, which passed last year, is the most sweeping
piece of social legislation since the 1960s, reins in insurance
company abuses and brings America as close as it has ever been to
universal coverage.

"Today's ruling... is a plain case of judicial overreaching,"
Stephanie Cutter, a senior political assistant to Obama, said in a
White House blog post.

"The judge's decision puts all of the new benefits, cost savings and
patient protections that were included in the law at risk."

In December, Judge Henry Hudson of the Eastern District Court in
Richmond, Virginia, found that the mandate usurps federal authority
and violates the Commerce Clause, a key component of the US
Constitution.

Some 12 federal judges have already struck down challenges to the law,
and two have upheld the legislation.

Republicans pounced on the latest ruling, seeking fuel for their
campaign to overturn the reform -- a vain hope for now, as Obama could
wield a presidential veto in the unlikely event a repeal law cleared
Congress.

Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said the court's
decision proved the health care law was a "massive overreach" and
exceeded congressional authority.

"We should repeal this health spending bill and replace it with
commonsense reforms that will actually lower costs, prevent
unsustainable entitlement promises and make it easier for employers to
start hiring again," he added.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus called the
ruling a "major victory for the American people and job-creators all
across the country."

Obama's Republican foes have claimed the health care law includes
rationing for end of life care, would add to the massive deficit and
will kill jobs as employers struggle to pay for what they say will be
rising premiums.

The new Republican-led House of Representatives has already voted to
repeal the health reform law, which reins in insurance firms and seeks
to offer near-universal care to Americans for the first time.

Obama said in his State of the Union address earlier this month that
he was "eager" to work with Republicans to make small improvements in
the law but was not willing to consider a complete repeal.

Opinion polls have found the US public deeply divided over the health
law, with roughly one in five in favor of outright repeal and the rest
divided between strengthening the law and rolling back parts of it.

Residents, tourists flee as cyclone nears Australia

AFP, SYDNEY: Residents and tourists evacuated coastal areas of
Australia's Queensland state as officials warned a looming monster
cyclone could be "deadly" in a region already ravaged by flooding.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, packing winds of more than 250
kilometres (160 miles) per hour, was due to collide with the populous
and resort-strewn coast late Wednesday or early Thursday, bringing
with it a treacherous storm surge and heavy rains.

Patients in a waterfront hospital in the tourist hub of Cairns faced
evacuation to other cities, while officials urged residents in coastal
areas to leave home immediately as the storm gathers strength over the
Coral Sea.

"This is a dangerous, serious threat," warned Queensland Premier Anna
Bligh. "This is potentially a deadly storm and we need to take it
absolutely seriously.

"If you are in a low-lying or waterfront area in the danger zone and
beyond you need to relocate yourself and your family to safety," she
said, adding that mandatory evacuations would likely be ordered later
Tuesday.

Yasi is expected to reach a severe category four on a five-point scale
by the time it makes landfall and will likely eclipse Cyclone Larry --
a 2006 storm that wrought up to Aus$1.5 billion in damage -- in both
intensity and size.

Meteorologists said the storm would likely hit between Cairns and the
town of Innisfail, but warned that its winds and rains may be felt up
to 500 kilometres away.

"I think... we need to prepare for the eventuality of something really
significant heading into areas that may not have seen this before,"
meteorologist Gordon Banks told public broadcaster ABC.

Airlines on Tuesday put on additional flights to far north Queensland
to evacuate thousands of residents and tourists from the region before
wild winds force the closure of airports as early as Wednesday
morning.

Holidaymakers in the tourist paradise of Hamilton Island in the
Whitsundays chain were abandoning the white beaches and evacuating
their plush suites before flying to safety.

"We have asked our guests and residents to postpone the remainder of
their holidays and we are helping them to arrange their flights out,"
Jill Collins of the Hamilton Island resort told AFP.

"The main thing is the safety of our guests, staff and residents. We
hope for the best but have to prepare or the worst at time like this."

Queensland is still reeling from a record deluge and floods that have
destroyed tens of thousands of homes and killed more than 30 people
since December.

"I know that many of us will feel that Queensland has borne about as
much as we can bear when it comes to disasters and storms, but more is
being asked of us and I am confident that we are able rise to the
challenge," Bligh said.

Egypt braces for mass protests as army holds back

AFP, CAIRO: Egyptians plan mass marches on Tuesday in their campaign
to oust President Hosni Mubarak, reassured by the all-powerful army,
which has said their demands are legitimate and that it will not fire
on them.

As Mubarak announced a new cabinet that saw the demise of a widely
feared interior minister, and the newly appointed vice president
offered talks with the opposition, protesters pushed ahead with a
singular goal of forcing the president from office.

They announced an indefinite general strike and called for a "march of
a million" in the capital on Tuesday, the eighth day of an uprising
that has claimed at least 125 lives in clashes between demonstrators
and police.

Another million-strong march was planned in the Mediterranean port
city of Alexandria, as national train services were cancelled in an
apparent bid to stymie protests.

The new demonstrations will come as the hated police have returned to
the street after a mysterious two-day absence that protesters said was
a ploy to sow a sense of insecurity.

But while it remains unknown what posture police will adopt in the
face of the strike and marches, the army stated clearly that it would
not confront the demonstrators.

"To the great people of Egypt, your armed forces, acknowledging the
legitimate rights of the people," stress that "they have not and will
not use force against the Egyptian people," the military said in a
statement.

Tens of thousands of protesters had carpeted Cairo's Tahrir
(Liberation) Square, the epicentre of demands for an end to the
corruption, deprivation and police oppression indelibly associated
with Mubarak's 30-year rule.

"We will stay in the square, until the coward leaves," the crowd chanted.

Eid Mohammed, an organiser of the protests, told AFP: "It was decided
overnight that there will be a million-man march on Tuesday. We have
also decided to begin an open-ended general strike."

Faced with the biggest protests of his presidency, an increasingly
embattled Mubarak has appointed his first-ever vice president and a
new prime minister in a desperate attempt to hold on to power.

A new cabinet unveiled on Monday did little to placate the protesters.
However, the departure of interior minister Habib al-Adly, whose
notorious security forces have been accused of systematic human rights
violations, was welcomed.

"We will accept no change other than Mubarak's departure," said one
protester who asked not to be named.

Another, Rifat Ressat, said: "We want a complete change of government,
with a civilian authority."

Police were ordered back onto the nation's streets on Monday, after an
absence during which the army was deployed in the face of the revolt,
but few policemen were visible on Cairo's streets.

Their vanishing act remains unexplained officially, but it left the
city prey to looters and jail-breakers, and residents formed
self-defence groups to protect their patches.

As the anti-regime campaign continued apace, Vice President Omar
Suleiman said Mubarak had tasked him "with opening immediate talks
with the political forces to begin a dialogue around all the issues
concerning constitutional and legislative reforms."

Meanwhile, Arab League chief Amr Mussa, a highly former Egyptian
foreign minister often tipped as a possible successor to Mubarak,
called for a peaceful transition.

"There has to be a peaceful way forward, a peaceful transition ...
from an era to the other," Mussa told AFP. "It is incumbent upon
politicians or people working in politics to help that process."

Protesters massed in downtown Cairo vowed that Mubarak's resignation
would not be enough, while Egypt's main opposition group, the Muslim
Brotherhood, called for them to press on until they bring down his
creaking regime.

Amid chaos and lawlessness, several foreign governments said they
would evacuate their nationals, and the United States authorised the
departure of embassy families.

Washington, a key ally of Egypt, has urged Mubarak to do more to
defuse the crisis, with President Barack Obama calling for "an orderly
transition to a government that is responsive to the aspirations of
the Egyptian people."

Egypt has limited war chest to avert financial crisis

Reuters, Cairo: Egypt has substantial reserves to avoid an external
payments crisis but these could be seriously depleted within weeks if
political protests continue, while its banks may struggle to cope with
a rush of withdrawals.
In the two working days after the protests erupted last Tuesday, which
was a bank holiday, Egyptians and foreign investors transferred
hundreds of millions of dollars out of Egypt, currency traders
estimated.
The government had $36 billion in foreign reserves at end-December,
central bank figures showed. According to a January 27 note by
Citigroup, it also had $21 billion of additional assets with
commercial banks at end-October — its so-called 'unofficial reserves.'
These numbers suggest there is no immediate danger of a balance of
payments crisis. But scenes of chaos at Cairo's main airport on
Sunday, as both foreigners and Egyptians tried to get flights out of
the country, indicated outflows of money could reach damaging levels
over the medium term.
Egypt has a financial war chest, 'but the war chest is going to be
depleted if this situation continues for several weeks rather than a
few days,' said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi
Fransi.
'When markets begin to make bets against (the Egyptian pound), it will
have a severe impact. The whole fiscal position of the Egyptian
economy is going to be put to a very hard test if the violence,
rioting continues for several weeks.'
Egypt is vulnerable to a reversal of large flows of foreign portfolio
investment that have been attracted by high yields on domestic
government debt. Barclays Capital estimated foreign holdings of
Egyptian assets before the protests were close to $25 billion, with
roughly half held in Treasury bills and bonds.
Foreign direct investment is based on long-term planning and is less
likely to be influenced by the political unrest. Egypt drew $6.76
billion of such investment in the last fiscal year to June 30, of
which $3.6 billion went to the petroleum sector.
But the damage from any extended disruption to tourism could be
considerable; Egypt earned $11.59 billion from tourism last fiscal
year. It ran a current account deficit of $802 million in the
July-September quarter of 2010, and because of tourism the deficit is
likely to be much higher in the current quarter.
Equally worrying is the risk that middle-class and wealthy Egyptians
will send more of their savings abroad. These outflows might match or
over the long term, even exceed money pulled out by foreign portfolio
investors.
Official figures are not available but a dealer at a medium-sized bank
based in Cairo, who declined to be named, said clients at his
medium-sized bank alone had transferred $150 million out of the
country in two days. Some bankers said total outflows of funds from
Egypt might have been at least $500 million per day last week.
If outflows continued at that speed without accelerating, Egypt could
lose over a quarter of its official reserves within a month.
Central Bank deputy governor Hisham Ramez told Reuters on Saturday:
'We are ready. Our reserves are very strong. We have no problem.' He
did not elaborate on how authorities would cope with pressure on the
pound.
Much will depend on how authorities try to manage the Egyptian pound
when financial markets eventually resume trading. The government
closed the markets and commercial banks on Sunday, citing security
concerns, and has said they will stay shut on Monday; it has not
indicated when they will reopen.
Last week the pound shed only 0.7 per cent of its value, to 5.855
against the US dollar. The central bank said it did not intervene
directly or indirectly in the market; the Cairo dealer said banks
remained willing to sell dollars in the expectation that the central
bank would provide dollars at a stable rate if needed.
When the markets reopen, however, traders may test the central bank's
willingness to keep the exchange rate stable. If it spends what is
necessary to keep the pound stable, it may start running through its
reserves at an alarming rate. If it lets the pound fall toward a rate
at which buying dollars would be less attractive, it may simply fuel
panic in the market.
A substantially cheaper pound would also increase the prices which
Egyptians pay for foreign goods, contributing to the high inflation
which helped spark the anti-government protests.
Some analysts think authorities may therefore consider imposing
controls to limit transfers of funds overseas. But this might damage
Egypt's reputation in the markets further, while simply driving
Egyptians to seek underground channels.
'There is always a reluctance to go down the route of imposing capital
controls,' said Ann Wyman, analyst at Nomura.
'If you do that to stop capital exiting, the long-term implications
are negative. Egypt does rely on foreign inflows so it's important to
keep long-term prospects in mind. Any decision like that will not be
taken lightly.'

Pop star jailed over internet sex tape

Reuters, Jakarta: An Indonesian pop star whose sex tapes with his
celebrity girlfriends spread wildly on the internet was jailed on
Monday for three and a half years, in a case that led to a wide
crackdown on Internet porn in the country.
The trial highlighted a divide between a youthful Indonesia set
against censorship on the internet and conservative pressure groups in
the world's most populous Muslim country who rallied outside the court
demanding a harsher penalty.
Nazril "Ariel" Irham, 30, was jailed under a controversial pornography
law, which was passed in 2008 to ban public displays of nudity and
behaviour that could incite lust.
"The defendant is legitimately and convincingly guilty of giving
chances for others to spread, make and provide pornography," said
judge Singgih Budi Prakoso in a west Javan court where 1,000 police
tried to control a rowdy crowd.
Police said earlier a friend of Irham's had taken the sex tape off his
computer and posted it on the Internet. Irham denied it was him on the
tape.
The crowd at the court included teenaged female fans of Irham's band,
Peterpan, wearing T-shirts with the word "freedom", and skullcap- and
headscarf-wearing members of Islamic groups.
Members of both groups were angered by the verdict. Irham was also
fined 250 million rupiah ($27,692).
Under the pornography law, anyone who produces, makes, copies,
circulates, broadcasts, offers, trades, loans or provides pornography
can be jailed for between six months and 12 years and can be fined up
to six billion rupiah ($665,900).
The law was seen by many as a step back in democratic and officially
secular Indonesia, where foreign investors are hoping for more
openness and pro-market reforms to increase its allure as an emerging
market investment destination.
After the Irham case blew up, Communications and Information Minister
Tifatul Sembiring, of the Islamic PKS party, called for tighter
internet controls, including requiring providers to stop access to
pornography or browsing services could be closed.
Research in Motion, makers of the popular Blackberry telephone and
messaging system, said two weeks ago it would comply with the
government's order to block access to pornographic sites via its
devices.
"What is an issue here is not Ariel, but rights supporters versus
morality enforcers. Tough choice: porn star or oppressors?" said
political commentator Wimar Witoelar on Twitter.

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